How Markets Fail:The Logic of Economic Calamities Cassidy John/ John Cassidy
Markets Don´t Fail!: Emily Chamlee-Wright/ Brian P. Simpson
The indispensable classic on marketing by the bestselling author of Tribes and Purple Cow. Legendary business writer Seth Godin has three essential questions for every marketer: ´´What´s your story?´´ ´´Will the people who need to hear this story believe it?´´ ´´Is it true?´´ All marketers tell stories. And if they do it right, we believe them. We believe that wine tastes better in a $20 glass than a $1 glass. We believe that an $80,000 Porsche is vastly superior to a $36,000 Volkswagen that´s virtually the same car. We believe that $225 sneakers make our feet feel better-and look cooler-than a $25 brand. And believing it makes it true. As Seth Godin has taught hundreds of thousands of marketers and students around the world, great marketers don´t talk about features or even benefits. Instead, they tell a story-a story we want to believe, whether it´s factual or not. In a world where most people have an infinite number of choices and no time to make them, every organization is a marketer, and all marketing is about telling stories. Marketers succeed when they tell us a story that fits our worldview, a story that we intuitively embrace and then share with our friends. Think of the Dyson vacuum cleaner, or Fiji water, or the iPod. But beware: If your stories are inauthentic, you cross the line from fib to fraud. Marketers fail when they are selfish and scurrilous, when they abuse the tools of their trade and make the world worse. That´s a lesson learned the hard way by telemarketers, cigarette companies, and sleazy politicians. But for the rest of us, it´s time to embrace the power of the story. As Godin writes, ´´Stories make it easier to understand the world. Stories are the only way we know to spread an idea. Marketers didn´t invent storytelling. They just perfected it.´´
A prediction market is designed to trade and predict future events. This book provides a comprehensive and multidisciplinary treatment of the prediction market, explaining what it is, how it works, and why it may fail, from the theoretical, computational, and statistical (or machine learning) perspectives. The book begins with the theoretical aspect by reviewing Friedrich Hayek´s work on markets, which he viewed as discovery processes, and proceeds to experimental economics to examine the Hayek hypothesis by using human-subject experiments, finally moving to the modeling work. In addition to the conventional analytical models based on neoclassical economics, agent-based models of prediction markets are introduced. The use of agent-based models makes it possible to address the following four elements, which are difficult to tackle with analytical models: space, networks, traders´ behavior, and market designs. Agent-based simulation of the prediction market augmented with these four elements enables an examination of the effects of these elements on the prediction market from the computational aspect and hence tests the Hayek hypothesis on the basis of diverse institutional and individual characteristics. The empirical part of the book is based mainly on data from xFuture, currently the largest prediction market in Asia. This dataset includes 5.9 million trades from 170,000 members distributed over 128 countries. Forty variables are abstracted from the dataset and categorized into five groups to build empirical models to help evaluate or predict the performance of prediction markets. In addition to the linear models, complex thinking prompts the use of artificial intelligence or machine learning tools to develop nonlinear models. The system thus created allows an examination of how the performance of prediction markets can be affected by the complexity of events, the heterogeneity of agents´ intelligence and beliefs, and the degrees of manipulation.
1. The stock market has its peculiarities. It´s a world where a small matter has the potential of creating a massive impact. One thing added or one thing left out could be the difference between making a million dollars and losing it all. 2. There is no shortage of investors. The world has many of them. And you can be sure that some are extremely successful while others cry bitterly over their losses. 3. The reason why most investors fail is that theyapproach investing as though it were some lottery game. They are chance-takers. They have no plan. They stagger from one failed investment to another, taking stabs in the dark, and soon enough they lose all their money. 4. This book has been written to help you become an intelligent investor. An intelligent investor is not a chance-taker. An intelligent investor is a vainvestor who exploits market inconsistencies long before others have taken notice. 5. You will learn all the basics of the stock market investment and how to optimize your investments and realize the largest possible profits. 6. An investor should not turn himself into a speculator, for a speculator acts on his instincts rather than his intellect when executing trades. 7. The stock market is neither a mythical place beyond human understanding, nor a place reserved for people with special genetics. The investors who have made a fortune out of stock market are average people like everyone else except they took their time to understand everything before trying to get in the game. 8. There are many investments in the securities markets beyond stocks. You could invest in bonds and funds like mutual funds and index funds. 9. Investing in IPOs gives you a chance to own a slice of a company and in return,you play your part in providing the company with much-neededresources. 10. The best single thing an investor can do before taking up an investment deal is to conduct a fundamental analysis. 11. Fundamental analysis is the evaluation of a company´s financial health with the intention of either solidifying your interest in the venture or finding out any red flag. ´´The strategies for succeeding as an investor are timeless. They worked a lifetime ago in the days of Ben Graham (the father of value investing) and they still work today.´´
´´One of the more momentous books of the decade.´´-The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair´s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger-all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation´s foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the ´´prediction paradox´´: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good-or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary-and dangerous-science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver´s insights are an essential read.
Market Entry into the USA:Why European Companies Fail and How to Succeed Ralf Drews/ Melissa Lamson
Market Entry into the USA:Why European Companies Fail and How to Succeed. 1st ed. 2016 Ralf Drews/ Melissa Lamson